According to the annex to the draft federal budget drafted by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, the Russian authorities predict that the number of imported passenger cars will fall from 2025. This forecast is based on the gradual increase in the scrapping tax on cars and the increase in the production of cars made in Russia. RBK studied the draft and found that passenger car imports are expected to reach 1.085 million vehicles in 2025 (of which 733,500 are new cars and the rest are used cars over 3 years old), 916,000 vehicles in 2026 (including 633,200 new cars), and 776,000 vehicles in 2027 (including 547,400 new cars). RBK calculated that the average tax rate on imported cars will be 602,000 rubles per car in 2025, 716,000 rubles in 2026 and 798,000 rubles in 2027.

Overall, the budget will receive 653.5 billion rubles from cars supplied to Russia next year, 656.4 billion rubles in 2026 and 619.5 billion rubles in 2027. According to the AUTOSTAT agency, 1.09 million passenger cars were imported into Russia in 2023, of which 707,000 were new and 387,000 were used. According to the agency's experts, the import of new cars this year will exceed that of last year. From January to August 2024, 578,800 new cars were imported into Russia, which is 1.5 times the same period last year. At the same time, the total import volume in August reached 89,000 vehicles, setting a record for the past 12 years.

The decrease in imports in 2025 may be due to the increase in the production of Russian-made cars and the increase in scrapping rates. In September, the Council of Ministers approved the long-term indexation table for scrapping rates of motor vehicles and special equipment until 2030. From October 1, the fees increased by an average of 70-85%. In the future, the rates will increase by 10-20% from January 1 every year. The press service of the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade reviewed the strategy for the development of the automotive industry until 2035, which provides for a gradual increase in the production of cars of Russian manufacturers and an increase in the share of domestic cars in the domestic market.